First off — war. No matter which side you're on, war is not good. I hope that everyone involved, whether you're in Iran or Israel or anywhere in the Middle East, I pray for your safety and for your loved ones.
This is having a cascade effect on ecommerce and the supply chain. We'll unpack that.
Tariffs are one of the biggest reasons sellers have been frozen since 2025. A lot of people quit. A lot of people are frustrated. But there's potentially a silver lining — and we'll walk you through it.
On one hand, Amazon is trying to restrict sellers and tool providers from using AI to access their website and data. On the other hand, they're pushing their own new AI to sellers. We'll get into that hot take.
Pop quiz: During the last major conflict in the Middle East, how much did the price of gas increase per gallon? I'm dating myself — I know some of you guys weren't even born yet. Answer at the end.
Are you going to Prosper? The Prosper Show is next week in Las Vegas (March 9-12). I'm not going this year — I know a lot of people aren't. Is the Prosper Show even relevant these days, besides the networking? That said, if you're going, the networking alone might be worth it.
Are you going to Prosper?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics."
— General Dwight D. Eisenhower, former President of the United States
A military leader says that supply chains win wars. Sellers are facing war-disrupted supply chains right now.
Logistics — being a master of logistics — is one of the biggest moats you can have. Sellers with good inventory planning who don't go out of stock, who know how to manage tariffs and refund strategies, are the ones thriving. They're killing off the ones who don't.
We'll walk you through the ways the war is affecting Amazon and ecommerce sellers — and ways you can come out on top while other sellers get destroyed.
STORY 1: Federal Judge Orders $175 Billion in IEEPA Tariff Refunds — Are You Filing Yours?
Tariffs are one of the biggest reasons for sellers being frozen since 2025. A lot of people quit; a lot of people are frustrated. But there potentially is a silver lining.
Here it is: On March 4-5, 2026, Judge Richard K. Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade issued a ruling that could mean money back in your pocket.
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump couldn't use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. Judge Eaton — who is the sole judge hearing refund cases — made it clear: "All importers of record are entitled to benefit from the Supreme Court's decision."
According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, up to $175 billion in refunds may be owed. The government collected $130-134 billion in IEEPA duties. That's real money.
After IEEPA was struck down, Trump pivoted to Section 122: a 10% baseline duty as a temporary measure — set to expire late July 2026. So there's a new tariff structure in place, but the old IEEPA charges? Those may be refundable.
Every situation is different. Your first call should be to your customs broker. They can tell you exactly what you paid under IEEPA and whether you have a claim.
I spoke with Harry Yang, a licensed customs broker at Pegasus Shipping Co in Los Angeles about this.
His take: the majority of refunds will likely be automatic if Customs follows the court's rulings. You can wait for the official notification from Customs on how they'll implement this.
But here's the one thing you should do RIGHT NOW: sign up for an ACE Portal account and link your US bank account.
ACE (Automated Commercial Environment) is the system Customs uses to process duties and refunds.
If and when they issue your refund, you need your ACE account set up and ready to receive it.
Don't wait until the money is on the table to figure out the paperwork.
Sources: NYT, CBS News, Business Insider, Harry Yang / Pegasus Shipping Co
TAKEAWAY: Sign up for a US CBP ACE Portal account and link your US bank account. Most IEEPA refunds are expected to be automatic — but only if Customs can actually send you the money. Get your account set up now so you're ready when refunds hit. And talk to your customs broker about your specific situation.
STORY 2: War Hits the Cloud AND Your Supply Chain
Unfortunately there's a war breaking out in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. First off my hat goes off to anyone that is affected and your loved ones, praying for peace and safety for everybody.
The Iranian drone strikes damaged 3 Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. This is the first time we've seen major cloud infrastructure be knocked down by military action. Amazon, NVIDIA, and Google all temporarily closed their Dubai offices.
To put numbers on it: 2 AWS facilities in UAE were directly struck, and 1 in Bahrain was damaged by a nearby strike (Reuters, March 2). Amazon has since suspended operations at its Abu Dhabi fulfillment center.
It's not just Amazon. eBay paused international shipping to the Middle East (EcommerceBytes, March 3). USPS suspended mail to 18 Middle East countries plus military post offices (EcommerceBytes, March 3).
War just hit the cloud and your business runs on the cloud. This is a wake-up call. Most sellers don't think about AWS infrastructure but if you use any tools that run on AWS (which is basically everything), you need to think about disaster recovery.
The Supply Chain Hit Is Bigger
Some of you guys may remember the Persian Gulf War — or maybe this was before some of you guys were born. I'm dating myself. During that time with the war between Iraq and the US, oil prices skyrocketed. I remember as a kid gas prices spiking from a dollar a gallon to almost $5 a gallon. Fast forward to today, we're not as concerned about driving, at least for those that don't drive gas-powered cars, but we are concerned about the supply chain.
Here's where things stand right now:
Brent crude peaked at $85.41/barrel on March 4 — up 27% in one week (CNBC)
WTI settled at $81.01, the highest since July 2024 (Reuters, March 5)
Analysts at Bernstein say $100/barrel is possible if the conflict drags on (Reuters)
Oil shipping freight rates hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day (Reuters)
Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz
Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk are already implementing war risk surcharges
Fuel surcharges typically make up 15-25% of your ocean freight rate — and when oil spikes like this, that number jumps fast.
TAKEAWAY: Lock in your freight quotes now before rates climb higher. Talk to your freight forwarder this week about rate guarantees and ask about alternative routing. If you're sourcing from China, consider booking containers before surcharges spike further.
STORY 3: Amazon Canvas + The AI Lock-In Play
Amazon launches Canvas, the AI-powered visual dashboard. Try it this weekend. Open Canvas, play with it, asking about sales, trends, and inventory levels. But Amazon wants you to use their AI, not someone else's. They're locking out other AI tools. It's gonna be basic but I would be skeptical of it.
Here's what's happening behind the scenes.
On March 4, Amazon updated its Business Solutions Agreement with a new "Agent Policy." Any AI or automated tool that accesses Amazon's platform must now self-identify, comply continuously, and cease operations on demand. Amazon can revoke access at any time — no process required, no appeal.
At the same time, Amazon is testing a review cap. Shoppers can only see 10 reviews by default. To see more, they have to apply and wait 5 days. This pushes buyers toward Rufus, Amazon's AI shopping assistant.
The numbers on Rufus are big: it's generating $12 billion in annualized GMV (Amazon earnings). Rufus users convert at 60% higher rates. But only 22% of page-1 products actually appear in Rufus recommendations, according to a Mars Agency study.
The pattern is clear: ban external AI, launch your own AI, control the data pipeline. Amazon is building a walled garden — and sellers who depend entirely on third-party tools are getting squeezed out, while sellers who optimize for Amazon's own AI get rewarded.
TAKEAWAY: Try Canvas this weekend — but don't depend on it. Amazon is building a walled garden around seller data. The more you rely solely on Amazon's tools, the less control you have over your business intelligence.
STORY 4: OCEA Cohort 1 Wrapped — We Built an Inventory Management AI Agent
This week the 80/20 OpenClaw Accelerator wrapped up. We created an inventory management AI agent. Basically this was a supply chain expert that can help you manage inventory forecasts, when you should place reorders, anticipate any spikes such as this particular oil spike, and be able to check for you indexes in real time. This was a game changer for the live cohort.
Think about what that means in the context of this week. An agent like this could have flagged the Brent crude spike and alerted you to lock in freight rates before they jumped. That's the kind of edge we're building.
If you are interested in signing up to the waitlist for when the next cohort opens, sign up here: https://newsletter.7figuresellersummit.com/80-20-openclaw-ecom-accelerator-waitlist
POP QUIZ ANSWER
During the last major conflict in the Middle East, how much did gas prices spike?
During the Persian Gulf War (1990-91), oil prices nearly tripled — from $17/barrel in July to $46/barrel by mid-October (EIA data). Gas at the pump went from around $1.00/gallon to $1.35/gallon nationally in just weeks. That's a 35% spike overnight.
But here's the kicker: the 2007-2008 oil shock pushed gas all the way past $4.00/gallon. If today's conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, analysts say $100/barrel oil is on the table (Bernstein via Reuters).
Today's conflict has already pushed Brent crude up 27% in one week. The supply chain impact is arguably worse now because ecom sellers depend on ocean freight, and fuel surcharges hit your landed costs directly.
History doesn't repeat exactly. But it rhymes.
ICYMI (In Case You Missed It)
From last week's 80/20 of Ecom (Feb 28):
Talk soon,
Gary