Hot take: sellers are okay
"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett
Right now, to be honest, the sentiment in the Amazon seller community is flat.
Sellers have been frozen because of the tariffs. They've been upset at Amazon's nonstop fees. They've been confused by the bevy of shiny new AI tools.
But underneath it all, there's a silver lining to this cloud. Right now could be the best time to sell on Amazon in years.
I invited Brandon Young, one of the sharpest Amazon operators in the world, on the podcast this week.
The four-hour work week is dead. Not because you have to work more, but because you don't need a team of VAs to do what an AI agent can help you do right now.
I've actually done this myself. After going through 13 VAs over the past several years, I decided to quit that and build my own AI agent A-player instead. And so far, so good.
You still have to check the work. It can do about 80% to 90% of the work for you. More on that below.
Hit reply and tell me in one word: are you launching new products in Q4 or Q1? Yes or no?
What's changed on Amazon: 5 lessons from Brandon Young
Brandon Young is the CEO of Data Dive, founder of Seller Systems, an award-winning Amazon consultant and an 8-figure seller. Here are my 5 biggest takeaways from our conversation.
1. An experienced operator is optimistic again.
"Now's an awesome time to be an Amazon seller and start a private label brand and start launching products," Brandon told me.
When someone who's seen every cycle on Amazon says that, it's worth asking why.
2. Fewer sellers is a fact, not a question.
Brandon said there are 40% fewer Amazon sellers now than 2 years ago.
The data backs up the trend. Marketplace Pulse reports that sellers launching their first Amazon listing fell 44% from 2024 to 2025, the lowest since it began tracking in 2015. It also reports that global active sellers fell 16% over the prior year.
Fewer sellers means less new competition coming in. You still need to check the competition in your own niche.
3. The key is the feedback loop: design with AI, validate with real buyers, then iterate.
Poll real customers before you place the PO, using tools like PickFu.*
As we dove into this, I found the key actually isn't when you win the poll. It's when you lose the poll.
You should be happy about that, because either you win or you learn. If you lose the poll, you just learned that your suggested product design is not good enough.
So let's quickly go back to the drawing board. Let's improve the product. Let's change the color. Let's add the right benefits. Let's improve the picture to increase the conversion rate, until we win a poll against our competition in front of a live audience of Amazon shoppers.
Once we do that, you vastly increase your chances of success. And you decrease your chance of failure, and of losing tens of thousands of dollars and months of time on a failed purchase order.
That's something you can do right now in 2026 that you could never do in 2021 or 2022.
*Affiliate link. I may earn a commission if you sign up, at no extra cost to you.
4. Rank vs. profit: judge it by contribution dollars.
Brandon's 3 buckets: "plug the leaks, gain market share, and gain contribution dollars."
Translation: don't chase rank #1 if it burns your margin. Fix waste first. And a deal is optional, not mandatory.
5. Stay in the business of running your brand.
"Am I in the business of running and growing my brands or am I in the software business?" Brandon asked.
And this: "You need more context, and you need to be constantly double-checking your work."
Let AI do the narrow tasks: research, drafts, checks. You approve the decisions.
TAKEAWAY: Before you plan your Q4 and Q1 launches, run one product idea through the loop. Study the competition, design with AI, poll real shoppers, iterate until you win, then check the contribution math before you place the PO.
Amazon will soon let you pay for review requests
Amazon's TOS doesn't allow sellers to incentivize reviews. If you committed that sin, they could suspend you as a seller.
But now it's suddenly become kosher… if you pay Amazon to do it for you.
It's called Review Requests, a new ad type in Amazon Ads Agent. It shows a review ask to people who already bought your product, while they're shopping on Amazon.
Here's what Amazon has confirmed:
Open beta in the US starting late October 2026
Only for products with fewer than 1,000 ratings and reviews
Your ad account needs to be in good standing
In Amazon's closed test, products got 3 times as many ratings and reviews per week
What Amazon hasn't said yet: how it's billed.
Here's the catch. It gets you more reviews faster. It doesn't make them good reviews. If your product has problems, this speeds up the bad news.
TAKEAWAY: List your ASINs under 1,000 reviews now. Only run this on products you'd bet on. Track cost per new review, and compare it to the free Request a Review button.
Tariff refunds: you may already be in the class action
On October 8, the US Court of International Trade certified a class action for IEEPA tariff refunds (Freestyle World, Inc. v. US Customs and Border Protection).
If you were the importer of record and paid IEEPA tariffs between February 1, 2025 and February 19, 2026, you're likely in the class. Unless you filed your own lawsuit.
You don't opt in. You don't opt out.
But don't get excited yet. The court has not ordered any refunds yet.
Here's what this means for sellers.
First, check who your importer of record was. If your freight forwarder or broker was the IOR, the refund may go to them, not you. You'll have to chase it.
Second, check your ACH bank info in CBP's CAPE portal. Refunds can't be paid without it.
Third, book the refund right. It's not new revenue. It's duty you already paid on goods you already sold. Book it against your cost of goods, or your margins will look better than they really are.
I'm not a lawyer. Talk to your customs broker about your deadlines.
TAKEAWAY: This week, email your broker 3 questions. Who was the IOR on my entries? Is my ACH info in CAPE? What are my liquidation dates?
Freight is down. But it's still expensive.
Good news first. Transpacific ocean rates dipped this week.
According to Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos (October 6):
Asia to US West Coast: down 3% to $8,322 per 40-foot container
Asia to US East Coast: flat at $9,600 per container
China to North America air freight: down more than 15% to $5.60 per kg
Now the bad news. Look at the chart. West Coast rates are still about $2,600 higher than in late June. Levine says blank sailings and port backlogs in China may keep the transpacific "rate floor quite elevated." And Chinese New Year is coming.
Also, Amazon's holiday peak FBA fees start October 15. That's about 32 cents more per unit on average, through January 14.
TAKEAWAY: A 3% drop is good news. But rates are still high. Plan your end-of-year and pre-Chinese New Year orders now, and price in the higher freight and peak fees.
The Vital Few
The 20%
TikTok just added an AI shopping assistant and one-click checkout right inside the For You feed. Shoppers can now buy from a brand without leaving the video.
Quick poll
How was Prime Big Deal Days for you vs. last year?
Sponsor the 80/20 of Ecom
Reach 12,000+ Amazon and ecom sellers this Q4
If you run a tool, agency or service for Amazon and ecom sellers, the 80/20 of Ecom puts you in front of 6-, 7- and 8-figure operators every Friday.
Q4 and Q1 slots are open now, with fall pricing through October 16.
Reply SPONSOR and I'll send you the options.
Talk soon,
Gary
P.S. Either you win or you learn. Brandon and I walk through how to design, test and iterate before you place the PO. Watch our full conversation here.